Roberto Martinez may have already suggested he’ll look to rest key players, and there may be an expectation for Gareth Southgate to do the same, but for a few key reasons England and Belgium’s meeting on Thursday night is an important occasion for all involved.

Obviously, there’s pole position in Group G to play for and even though there’s been cynical analysis of all the permutations for the knockout tree, both countries will want to finish top of a group they’ve otherwise dominated.

On top of that, for two countries that own astoundingly poor World Cup records considering the quality and resources at their disposal, who have both excelled in relatively simplistic tests against Tunisia and Panama, the coming clash is the first real barometer of where these sides are at and how far they can go at Russia 2018 – whether they’re simply flat-track bullies capable of easily dispensing of lesser nations or whether they can truly upset the balance of power this summer.

Although some changes to their previous starting XIs seem inevitable, from a tactical perspective Thursday’s encounter can be reduced to four factors. This is where the final Group G game will be lost and won…

England vs a three-man defence

For all the offensive brilliance Gareth Southgate’s 3-1-4-2 has produced during England’s first two World Cup games, nominally the first half against Panama and the opening 25-minute blitz against Tunisia, the quirky system does appear to have one achilles heel.

During the warmup friendly against Nigeria, England completely dominated the first half but their momentum suddenly vanished after the interval when a change to three-at-the-back saw Alex Iwobi net for the Super Eagles just minutes into the second half.

That’s been a recurring theme; the other two friendlies in which the Three Lions’ quirky setup was placed against a three-man defence, versus the Netherlands and Germany, saw them score just once past an ill-health Oranje side that failed to qualify for the World Cup.

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Belgium line up in a 3-4-3 and their centre-back options are top class. Should the Manchester City skipper prove fit enough to start, their back three could well include Vincent Kompany flanked by Tottenham’s formidable pairing of Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld.

You’ll struggle to find a more complete and better-suited back three in world football right now, so England will have to produce something special to do what they couldn’t manage against Germany and Nigeria, and just about managed against the Netherlands.

Set Pieces

No side has matched England’s potency from set pieces so far at this World Cup, scoring from four in just two games.

That in part owes to some fantastic work on the training ground from Gareth Southgate and Steve Holland, organising the runs England’s four aerial targets – Jordan Henderson, Harry Maguire, Harry Kane and John Stones – while putting together some expertly-assembled routines such as the fourth goal against Panama, but also consistently dangerous deliveries from Ashley Young and Kieran Trippier.

It’s something Belgium will need to work on, both offensively to match England at set pieces and defensively to contain them at the other end.

The Red Devils are yet to score from one so far in the tournament, but conceded from a Wahbi Khazri free kick against Tunisia which found Dylan Bronn largely unchallenged. Heading into Thursday, it’s certainly advantage England on this front.

Outnumbering Belgium in midfield

If there’s one area of the Belgium team that lacks balance, it’s undoubtedly the midfield. Thomas Meunier thoroughly impressed against Tunisia with his surging runs forward but the PSG man isn’t a natural wing-back and the same can be said for Yannick Carrasco – more a wide forward than anything else – on the opposite flank.

In midfield, meanwhile, Kevin De Bruyne is being asked to perform a service that doesn’t play to his biggest strengths and shows up arguably his biggest weakness, asking for far greater discipline than the leashless role granted to him by Pep Guardiola last season, where he had the freedom to rip through the midfield and drive forward to launch attacks.

Instead, De Bruyne partners Axel Witsel in a deeper-lying role, and England should be able to exploit that somewhat uneasy pairing. For starters, the Three Lions’ engine room contains one extra body, so there’s a natural numerical advantage.

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More crucial than that, however, is the shared qualities of England’s midfielders – energy, mobility and flair – and what the roaming No.8s just in front of Jordan Henderson are asked to do by Southgate.

Jesse Lingard and Dele Alli have made surging gallops from midfield a key feature of England’s attacking play and they should get some joy doing that off the back of De Bruyne particularly because he’s not a naturally defensive-minded player, which will force Belgium’s back three to engage.

The frequency in which they do that will not only go a long way to determining the number of chances England create, but also De Bruyne’s influence on the match – the more he’s pushed back towards Belgium’s own box to contain Alli and Lingard’s dynamic movement, the further away he is from the Three Lions’. Which brings us nicely onto…

Star quality

For all the talk of tactics and key battles, the pure star quality of both teams must be taken into account. Martinez and Southgate both have some fantastic match winners at their disposal – whether it’s Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling and Dele Alli or Romelu Lukaku, Eden Hazard and De Bruyne – who have the potential to produce that moment of individual brilliance deciding the encounter.

Overall though, you’d have to argue Belgium offer more players who fall into that calibre. In addition to the above, Carrasco scored some pivotal goals during his Atletico Madrid days and Dries Mertens has already netted a worldie at the tournament. It also says a lot that De Bruyne’s ended up playing in deep midfield, simply to fit Belgium’s immense attacking quality into the same starting XI.

Consequentially, England will need to be that bit more organised and that bit more clinical, but with the World Cup’s top goalscorer leading the line, just a half-chance could be enough in what looks set to be a  close game.